Israel conflict could complicate the US economic outlook

by Tiffany Wang, WOO Analyst

The US economy has added 254,000 jobs in September, significantly exceeding expectations, while the unemployment rate slightly declined. This robust labor market reduces recession fears and lowers the likelihood of a Fed rate cut in October, with expectations now leaning toward a 25 bps hike, raising the terminal rate forecast from 2.75% to 3.3%.

Additionally, escalating conflict in Israel raises concerns about potential energy price spikes, which could drive inflation and complicate the economic outlook.

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