Market still seeking bottom before rebound

Mainstream data observations

BTC core liquidation levels:

Long positions: Liquidation price at $74,710 with a liquidation amount of $147 million;

Short positions: Liquidation price at $75,970 with a liquidation amount of $97.77 million.

The current BTC price is $79,770, which is significantly higher than the long liquidation price of $74,710, leaving some room for upward movement in the market. If the price continues to rise, it could trigger short position liquidations, further driving the price upward. The short-position liquidations are evenly distributed and have significant liquidation strength, posing a risk of cascading liquidations.

ETH core liquidation levels:

Long positions: Liquidation price at $1,407.2 with a liquidation amount of $94.297 million;

Short positions: Liquidation price at $1,445 with a liquidation amount of $173 million.

The current ETH price is $1,431.5, with significant and concentrated short liquidation strength at $1,445. Strong short liquidation pressures are also seen at $1,445, $1,490, and $1,499.

Total stablecoin market cap: $233.473B

The total market cap has slightly decreased. BUIDL has issued an additional 29.17M tokens, with a 0.03% increase on Aptos, Avalanche, Polygon, Arbitrum, and Optimism, and a 0.33% increase on Ethereum, further advancing its progress.

BTC market cap share: 63.46%

TOTAL 3 market cap: $720.71BBTC's market cap share has steadily increased and now exceeds 62%.

The total market cap of TOTAL3 dropped by 2.29%, bringing it to data levels similar to mid-November 2024. It slightly retraced on April 9.

Current miner breakeven price: $53,318.18

52% of miners are operating above their shutdown price. The shutdown price for mainstream mining equipment is around $66,000, which can be considered a key price level to observe.

Bitcoin MVRV-Z score: 1.56

The MVRV ratio is the quotient of the minimum market value (current market cap) over the realized value (the sum of all BTC values at their last movement). BTC's price may hit a low in the short term.

Bitcoin BVIV score: 62.87%

On April 9, the index slightly pulled back, and the potential for BTC price volatility has somewhat decreased compared to April 8. However, it remains at a moderately high level. The current data trend is similar to that seen around March 10, when Donald Trump’s announcement of Bitcoin reserve commitments disappointed the market with its details, leading to a price low.

[Market rating]

Affected by external policies and other factors, the current cryptocurrency market shows a clear bearish sentiment, with BTC's price returning to the end of 2024 levels. The key support level to watch for BTC is $74,500. The decline from Bitcoin's high of $108,000 appears to have run its course, with key market indicators suggesting that the correction phase is largely complete. The market is now focused on finding the bottom level before a potential rebound or stabilization. The current market’s bull/bear sentiment score is 55 (cautiously bearish). [Below 50: Bearish; 60-80: Neutral; Above 80: Bullish]

Market overview

BTC reached a high of $81,200 but failed to surpass $82,000, indicating a rebound rather than a reversal. The price has fallen to a low of $74,578, nearing the previous low, and it’s unclear whether this marks the short-term bottom. If it is the bottom, BTC would need to break through $78,000 and firmly hold above $82,000. Otherwise, there is still a risk of falling below the previous low. The market is now monitoring whether BTC can break through a key level of $78,000.

Macro overview

Early on April 9, a White House spokesperson stated, "The US has raised tariffs on Chinese imports to 104%," and "Additional tariffs will be imposed starting April 9. Tariffs exceeding 50% mean that the exporting country's profits are nearly wiped out, so higher tariffs are not particularly significant for China. Instead, they demonstrate Trump's determination to implement tariffs and deter other countries." US stocks opened higher by 3% but then went lower throughout the day, eventually closing down by 2.15%. The impact of tariffs is expected to continue to spread. If the S&P 500 drops further to the 4200-4500 range, it will present a good buying opportunity.

Key events

• The decentralized liquidity infrastructure platform Orderly Network has announced that its native token ORDER is now live on BNB Chain.
• According to CNN, the United States will impose a 104% tariff on Chinese products.
• KaitoAI founder Yu Hu has tweeted that KaitoAI's annual revenue has reached $33 million, a 100-fold increase compared to the same period in 2024.
• The Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE) has submitted a 19b-4 form to the US SEC for the SUI ETF application on behalf of Canary Capital.
• Stablecoin issuer Circle has issued an additional 250 million USDC on the Solana network.
• Restaking ecosystem KernelDAO has announced that its native token, KERNEL, will have its Token Generation Event (TGE) on April 14.
• The product manager of Linea has confirmed that the Linea token generation event (TGE) is planned to take place after the market turns from bear to bull.

Hot projects

Token		Description	Market Cap（$）
	DENODE GPU leasing concept	Denode is a decentralized GPU-sharing platform where users can instantly rent GPU resources via Telegram, with transparent hourly pricing and no hidden fees. Users can also connect their GPUs to Denode to easily start earning profit. The platform automatically matches clients' hardware resources with their demands, allowing clients to earn passive income without any technical barriers. Recently, the token has shown strong performance.	25.2 million
	DARK AI concept	Dark Eclipse is an infinitely enhanced AI that automatically integrates new tools into the user's AI, so it upgrades over time. The code is currently open source, and the product has not yet been launched.	3.2 million
	KOT Trump concept meme	King of Tariffs is used to describe Trump’s latest aggressive tariff policy, which has triggered market panic, causing a significant decline in asset values. There is high community discussion around it, and the current number of token holders is 9,642.	4.8 million
	RAIL Privacy protocol	Railgun is a decentralized privacy protocol based on Ethereum that uses zero-knowledge proofs (zk-SNARKs) to provide privacy protection for cryptocurrency transactions and DeFi users. Ethereum founder Vitalik Buterin has used Railgun multiple times and publicly mentioned it. Recently, the token has shown strong performance.	39 million

Exchange updates

• WOO X has listed Babylon (BABY) for pre-market trading.
• Bitget has listed Retard Finder Coin (RFC) spot trading.
• Binance has listed KernelDAO (KERNEL) Megadrop and FORTH/USDT perpetual contracts with up to 20x leverage, and announced the results of the first vote to delist, which will remove 14 tokens including Badger (BADGER), Balancer (BAL), Beta Finance (BETA), and Cream Finance (CREAM) on April 16.
• Jupiter has surpassed pump.fun to become the highest revenue-generating protocol on Solana, with a 24-hour revenue of $1.58 million.
• OKX will list PROMP (Wayfinder) spot trading on April 10.
• The DeFi platform dYdX has launched the dYdX Surge trading competition, offering $20 million in DYDX rewards to boost trading activity, attract liquidity, and re-engage past users.

Industry landscape

• AI code auditing tool Octane has completed a $6.7 million funding round, led by Winklevoss Capital and Archetype
• Stablecoin company Ripple has purchased prime brokerage Hidden Road for $1.25 billion. 
• Bitcoin collateralized lending marketplace Firefish has completed a $1.8 million seed funding round, participated in by Miton.
• DecentralGPT has completed a $3 million funding round, led by AGICrypto Capital.
• Tezos-based on-chain cryptocurrency payment application Lyzi has completed a $1.42 million seed funding round, participated in by Jean-Luc Bernard, founder of Astek.
• Crypto dining application Blackbird has completed a $50 million Series B funding round, led by Spark Capital.

Emerging projects

Token	PVS	DARK	HYPERSKIDS
Description	It is the native token of the Paraverse ecosystem, providing decentralized cloud rendering and Web3 transaction infrastructure for XR and 3D assets. Its core product LarkXR supports the UE5.5 engine, 8K streaming, and WebXR development. Utilizing a modular architecture, reduces enterprise deployment costs and enhances the efficiency of 3D application distribution. Currently, the platform has integrated over 200 projects and added more than 50 enterprise customers in 2024.	DARK builds an AI-driven dark technology universe, supporting AI competitive games through a Trusted Execution Environment (TEE) network. It is a competitive gaming world specifically designed for AI, showcasing their ability to develop and utilize MCP tools. The core combines cutting-edge technology with cyberpunk aesthetics, forming the "dark AI" subculture symbol.	HYPERSKIDS centers its narrative on charity, deeply linking its token economy with the support of Ugandan children. By expressing the concept of “token equals donation” in a memetic form, it establishes a public welfare attribute. The project seeks to create a differentiated cultural symbol in the meme sphere by tapping into the empathetic appeal of African child education aid.
Price	$0.004865	$0.003252	$0.009224
Market Cap（$）	4.86 million	3.25 million	9..22 million
Token Holders	6,641	8714	4,759

Token	CTD	MIPRAMI	GBB
Description	A memecoin on BNB Chain, whose full name is Chain Talk Daily, is a BSC-themed series program where CZ and He Yi use humorous dialogue to explain blockchain news and concepts.	A memecoin on Ethereum, resembling a female version of milady, has a concept strongly tied to Vitalik.	GBB constructs a meme narrative around gaming culture by combining hardcore esports terminology with the imagery of diligent bees to create a "fighting swarm" subcultural symbol. The project establishes community identity through the metaphor "gaming is battle" and emphasizes the spirit of resilient players.
Price	$0.003139	$0.0(5)3168	$0.01081
Market Cap（$）	3.13 million	1.3 million	10.81 million
Token Holders	2,933	1,011	6,341

Hyperliquid smart money tracking

The mainstream smart money's short positions remain intact, with some even increasing their positions or continuing to hold existing short positions. The overall strategy remains bearish.

Regarding HYPE, four large addresses continue to hold significant short positions. The current floating returns are between 113% and 137%, slightly lower compared to April 8, but the position sizes remain large, with no signs of closing these positions.

Other popular short targets such as PURR, BNB, MNT, VIRTUAL, and WLD still maintain high returns, especially VIRTUAL and WLD, where the short positions have floating profits of 276% and 841%, respectively, demonstrating the smart money's strong grasp of and continued operations on the downward trends of smaller coins.

What differs from April 8 is that the address 0xe0cc... has shifted its strategy, now holding short positions on DOGE and Fartcoin, whereas it previously held long positions in HYPE and Fartcoin. This suggests a loss of confidence in the rebound market and a shift towards positioning for a decline.

Investors should continue to monitor for any signs of short-position closures or long-position entries, which could signal potential turning points in the short-term trend.

Address	Trading pair	Long/Short	Position size	Average cost	Current price	Liquidation price	Unrealized PnL	PnL for this address in the last 7 days
0xb3e475368ed0fa0ad23c04de0423d48a0758806f	HYPE	Short	1,636,270.96	21.1	11.93	31.89	$1,272,609 (131.46%)	+122,669(59%)
	PURR	Short	26,611.22	0.2908	0.0724	7.4	80,274.93 (225.38%)
	BNB	Short	353,512.32	656.56	546.21	5,290.71	$72,326.6 (170.26%)
	MNT	Short	42,619.85	0.7506	0.6557	44.58	6,212.34 (63.66%)
	BTC	Long	1,062,362	83,475	75,826	X	-126,421.48 (-213.26%)
0xe0cc85525563dadd56fdcd96581f7b587a2b2411 (Switching from short to long positions)	DOGE	Short	700,300	0.1511	0.1398	0.25	55,810.38 (73.86%)	+325,810(12%)
	Fartcoin	Short	256,350	0.5664	0.5124	1.53	26,639.05 (28.22%)
0xf467b892ddd18b4449e89fcf02a22f23cbf72d1d (Positions exceeding 10,000)	HYPE	Short	59,531.64	22.07	11.94	62.44	50,359.27 (137.14%)	+39,586
	VIRTUAL	Short	39,978.08	0.9815	0.438	3.36	49,627.94 (276.42%)
	WLD	Short	36,804.97	3.86	0.6138	5.28	194,946.08 (841.02%)
0xccf135ab352d561a15eb7be2a243cc4fcb7f0ab1	HYPE	Short	1,140,303.84	19.22	11.96	21.17	689,694.78 (113.12%)	+133,480 (130%)
0x3c65c137bf380df7f5f61d9318c193b32a344fb0	HYPE	Short	703,245.49	19.89	11.96	20.82	467,614.06 (119.84%)	X

Other opportunities

On-chain DeFi mining yield products:

Project Name	BYUSD|HONEY（Blockchain：Berachain） ←→ Token： BYUSD|HONEY
Participation Method	From the Berachain official website, go to BeraHub, connect a Berachain-compatible wallet, and select the pools page to deposit BYUSD|HONEY into the corresponding liquidity pool.
Project Information	Berachain: A high-performance EVM-compatible blockchain built on a liquidity proof-of-stake consensus.
Earnings Details	Staked tokens: BYUSD|HONEY BGT APR: 4.87% (The yield is determined by the staking token's proportional weight and is subject to change. The yield rate is BGT.) Pool APR: 0.01%
Product Data	Tokens: BYUSD|HONEY Total token market staked: 349.64M Maximum slippage: 0.5%
Note	HONEY is the native stablecoin on Berachain, while BYUSD is another stablecoin on Bera. BGT is the governance token of Berachain, allowing holders to earn a portion of the revenue from core dApps on Berachain. Specific details have not been disclosed. BGT can be exchanged 1:1 for BERA, but *BERA cannot be exchanged for BGT. BGT can only be obtained by participating in projects within the ecosystem.

Risk: Users should exercise caution when investing and conducting their research.

Disclaimer

The development and market cap of stablecoins mentioned in the above content are speculative and based on market analysis at the time of writing and should not be interpreted as guaranteed outcomes. Market conditions can fluctuate widely and unpredictably due to numerous factors such as regulatory changes, market demand, and global economic developments. 

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