Shorts on PURR, BNB cool off on Hyperliquid

Mainstream data observations

BTC core liquidation levels

Long positions: Liquidation price at $83,677 with a total liquidation amount of $814 million.

Short positions: Liquidation price at $85,927 with a total liquidation amount of $503 million.

The current BTC price is $85,149. Long position risk is relatively controllable and liquidation prices are concentrated. The $83,700 level can be viewed as a key support level.

ETH core liquidation levels

Long positions: Liquidation price at $1,608.4 with a total liquidation amount of $200 million.

Short positions: Liquidation price at $1,651 with a total liquidation amount of $143 million.

The current ETH price is $1,634.2. Long position liquidation intensity is high and concentrated around $1,607 with a large liquidation amount, making it a key level to watch. Short position liquidation risk is relatively controllable, with the main liquidation level at $1,650 and a more even distribution of liquidation intensity, so beware of potential chain liquidations.

Total stablecoin market cap: $233.84 billion

The total market cap has edged up. Circle issued an additional 231.02 million USDC on April 15. USDC on Ethereum increased by 0.34% and on Solana by 1.33%, indicating a resurgence of capital on the Solana chain.

BTC market cap dominance: 63.74%                                                                          

TOTAL3 market cap: $765.77

 BBTC’s dominance remains high, and the BTC DOM index deserves close attention. TOTAL3 market cap has risen under current market conditions. The cryptocurrency market is experiencing a weak rebound, and the SocialFi sector is up 2.26%.

Current miner shutdown price: $46,204.03

The proportion of miners operating above their shutdown price has fallen back to 29 percent. Mainstream miners have shutdown prices of around $60,000, which should be monitored closely.

Bitcoin MVRV‑Z score: 1.74

The ratio of minimum market value (current market cap) to realized value (sum of values when all BTC were last moved). The MVRV‑Z index has pulled back slightly but remains at a relatively high neutral level.)

Bitcoin BVIV score: 55.01

The BVIV score is at a neutral level on April 15, indicating a reduced likelihood of significant BTC volatility. At the end of March, the BVIV index ranged between 45 and 55, which corresponded with modest BTC price fluctuations.

[Market rating]

On April 15, the Fear & Greed Index rose from 31 to 38 (Fear). Tariff information remains unclear and investors are cautious. US equities opened higher but fell back and then rebounded from their lows. Recent BTC drivers have been tariff news and US equity data performance, though BTC has sometimes diverged from US equities. The likelihood of BTC breaking higher has increased. Going forward, the focus should be on global macroeconomic data and policy trends. The current bull/bear sentiment score is 75 (Neutral).

[Below 50: Bearish; 60–80: Neutral; Above 80: Bullish]

Market overview

BTC made multiple attempts to stabilize at $85,000, but due to the US stock market opening high and then falling, it continued to decline. It wasn’t until the US stock market stabilized at the close that BTC confirmed it could hold at $84,500. Several key characteristics of BTC can be observed: (1) Once BTC breaks through $86,000, it is likely to quickly rise above $88,000, making $85,000 a highly contested level for both bulls and bears; (2) A direct crush of shorts above $88,000 is more likely, while the easier approach for bears is to fake a breakout at $85,000, taking out high-leverage long positions and then testing whether it can drive BTC to pull back; (3) MicroStrategy’s continued accumulation of BTC once led to BTC approaching $86,000, but unfortunately, the poor performance of US stocks and the broader environment did not allow for a direct breakthrough. Therefore, bulls need to consolidate and wait for external conditions to stabilize before seizing a breakout opportunity. Overall, the probability of an upward breakout is higher, with the first target at $88,000 and the second target at $92,000. If BTC drops below $83,700, the bullish momentum will fail.

Macroeconomic overview

US President Donald Trump recently stated that once the market becomes accustomed to tariffs, it will be very strong. After the US Customs exempted certain electronics from reciprocal tariffs last weekend, US stocks were able to breathe and opened higher on April 14. Trump mentioned on April 14 that the possibility of exempting tariffs on imported cars and parts is being studied, and the tariffs on automotive parts will take effect no later than May 3. This marks a temporary adjustment to his previously hardline tariff stance. The core reason behind this is the large-scale sell-off in US Treasuries, with the market reassessing the structural appeal of the US dollar as a global reserve currency. De-dollarization is underway. However, compared to last Friday, when the 10-year US Treasury yield spiked to 4.56%, it had already dropped to 4.35% on April 14. Under pressure from US Treasury yields, Trump’s aggressive tariff policy is also being gradually adjusted.

Key events

• Ethereum re-staking protocol EigenLayer announced that its slashing mechanism, scheduled to launch on the mainnet on April 17, will allow AVSs to set compliance conditions for operators and impose penalties or rewards based on their performance.
• According to Barron's report, the anti-money laundering and financial crimes unit within the US Department of Homeland Security has launched an investigation into the crypto custody bank Anchorage Digital Bank, focusing on its compliance practices and financial transaction operations.
• The US SEC has delayed its decision on whether to approve Ether staking, and the decision for both the Grayscale Ethereum Trust ETF and the Grayscale Ethereum Mini Trust ETF has been postponed until June 1.
• USDT issuer Tether has announced that it will deploy existing and future Bitcoin computing power to OCEAN, a decentralized mining pool founded by developer Luke Dashjr, using the DATUM protocol to build a dedicated block template to enhance anti-censorship capabilities. 
• Shorooq Partners, one of MANTRA (OM)’s primary equity investors, has stated that neither Shorooq, its funds, founding partners, nor MANTRA’s management team sold OM tokens in the lead-up to or during its crash.
• According to Phoenix TV, US Secretary of Commerce Gina Raimondo has stated that the US and China have had "preliminary contact" through intermediaries regarding tariff issues.
• According to RWA.xyz data, the supply of Circle's Euro-backed stablecoin EURC has soared to an all-time high, as the increase in US trade tensions and the weakening of the US dollar may have stimulated the market demand for euro-denominated digital assets. 
• According to Token Terminal data, Ethereum dApps has generated over $1 billion in fee revenue in Q1 2025, ranking first among all platforms.
• According to data released by crypto asset manager Bitwise, publicly listed companies collectively purchased 95,431 BTC in Q1 2025, bringing their total holdings to 688,000 BTC.
• Tether CEO Paolo Ardoino has tweeted that the number of USDT users increased by 13% in the first quarter of 2025.

Hot projects

Token		Description	Market Cap（$）
	DARK AI concept	Dark Eclipse is an infinitely enhancing artificial intelligence that automatically integrates new tools into a user's AI, allowing it to upgrade over time. The code is currently open-source, and the product has not yet been released.	17 million
	memecoin A meme on Solana	"REF DO SOMETHING!!!" refers to a popular meme originating from sports fan culture, widely circulated in the NBA community. This meme is typically used humorously to express the "powerlessness" or the urge for intervention when referees fail to make the expected calls during critical moments of a game. It originates from the sentiment that fans or spectators hope the referee would intervene in intense or unfair situations during a game, only to feel that the referee remains indifferent.	8.5 million
	ALCH AI concept project	Alchemist AI is a no-code development platform that allows users to create applications through natural language descriptions. In April 2025, the project team announced a series of feature updates for the second quarter, which include optimizing the application generation process, making it easier for developers to integrate third-party APIs, adding real-time construction capabilities, supporting the creation of AI agents, launching a freelancer marketplace, and expanding into 3D application development. Additionally, the token associated with the project exhibits strong control characteristics.	129 million

Exchange updates

• Coinbase has listed KernelDAO (KERNEL).
• Binance has listed BABY/EUR, ONDO/TRY, and PAXG/USDC trading pairs, while Binance Alpha has listed Fair and Free (FAIR3).
• According to on-chain analyst @ai_9684xtpa, Flow Traders, Auros Global, and Arrington Capital may be the three major market makers for Binance's Megadrop launch of the new token KERNEL, receiving a total allocation of 17 million tokens.
• Bybit has launched the VET/USDT spot trading pair and RFC/USDT perpetual contracts with up to 20x leverage.
• Bitget has launched RFC/USDT with up to 20x leverage.
• Moonshot has launched Dark Eclipse (DARK).
• Kraken has announced that it has opened commission-free trading services for more than 11,000 US stocks and ETFs to some US users, supporting fractional share investment and integrated management of crypto and traditional assets.

Industry landscape

• According to Jinshi, Zhou Guanying, the Chief Sustainability Officer of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange Group, stated that the application of new technologies such as blockchain could make carbon credit tracking more transparent and efficient, facilitate cross-border transactions, and provide opportunities to address existing issues in the carbon market using technologies like blockchain.

Emerging projects

Token	RDC	jobcoin	memecoin
Description	The origin of the "Retarded Dog Coin" meme is based on self-mockery crypto culture, initiated by WojakCoinETH, which had previously successfully operated the WOJAK memecoin. It creates contrasting humor through anti-mainstream naming and low market cap narratives, resonating with the crypto community's preference for absurd stories. It continues the subcultural legacy of dog-themed memecoins.	The narrative centers around the theme of "buying tokens instead of working," building an anti-workplace culture narrative by using resignation jokes and fantasies of financial freedom to satirize the modern work system. The core tweets resonate with young people’s widespread resistance to the 996 work schedule.	The project originated from a meta-satire of the "everything is a meme" phenomenon in the crypto industry. It uses the second anniversary of Pepe as a cultural anchor and creates a community celebration through collective purchasing by Key Opinion Leaders (KOLs). The central conflict is the extreme simplification of "the project name as narrative" and doubts over insider trading.
Price	$0.001258	$0.001711	$0.008089
Market Cap（$）	1.25 million	1.71 million	8.08 million
Token Holders	5,314	3,111	4,743

Token	CYBERWISH	NORMIES	SOLEY
Description	CYBERWISH was initiated by Binance co-founder He Yi, with the core narrative being "Cyber Wish Pool." Through a lottery interaction, it encourages users to share personal stories, combining CZ’s previous tweets about ordinary people achieving success, forming a strong cultural symbol of collaboration between the Binance executive couple and the community.	Launched by the official Binance Chain account @BNBCHAIN, it uses imagery similar to Microsoft's to evoke identification with the "ordinary person" group, forming a self-mocking narrative that reflects the identity resonance of BNB Chain builders and participants.	The concept is derived from the Haitian Creole word "solèy" (sun), which sounds similar to "SOL." Visually, it is represented as a purple bull.
Price	$0.002524	$0.001571	$0.004199
Market Cap（$）	2.52 million	1.57 million	4.19 million
Token Holders	2,350	3,433	118

Hyperliquid Smart Money tracking

On April 15, after tracking the position changes of multiple smart money addresses, it was observed that short strategies still dominate the overall layout, but the return rate continues to decline, and the market has entered a clear consolidation and wait-and-see phase.

HYPE remains the main short position target, with five addresses collectively holding more than 280,000 short positions. Among them, 0xb3e4... holds the largest position, with a floating profit of approximately 710,000 USDT (a return rate of 73.56%). However, compared to before, it has significantly retraced 400,000, and short pressure has increased. Other addresses, such as 0xccf1... and 0x3c65..., also have their HYPE short returns drop to the range of 49% to 57%, indicating that price rebounds are interfering with the overall short positions.

Other short positions like PURR, BNB, and MNT still maintain floating profits, but their momentum has slowed, with return rates mostly falling in the range of 30% to 190%. USUAL is one of the few positions still in low floating profit, with a return rate of only about 18%, increasing the risk.

The short positions in WLD and VIRTUAL are still the highest returning positions, with returns of over 800% and 200%, respectively. However, these are early-entry positions, and no new add-ons or strategy adjustments have been seen.

It is worth noting that address 0xe0cc... has had no positions for the second consecutive day, confirming that it has completely closed its positions. This may indicate that the strategy has temporarily exited the observation phase and has shifted to a wait-and-see or more conservative approach.

On the long side, only 0xb3e4...’s BTC and 0xf467...’s ETH long positions are still active, with floating profits of about 3% and 200%, respectively. However, the position sizes are relatively small, not forming a mainstream market direction.

Address	Trading pair	Long/Short	Position size	Average cost	Current price	Liquidation price	Unrealized PnL	7-day PnL for the address	Unrealized profit and loss	Address
0xb3e475368ed0fa0ad23c04de0423d48a0758806f (Position unchanged)	HYPE	Short	137,133	2,195,087.93	21.1	16	32.41	712,146.51 (73.56%)	-403,694	837,858
	PURR	Short	367,406	37,574.61	0.2908	0.1022	6.23	69,337.62 (194.67%)
	BNB	Short	647.02	378,150.84	656.56	584.44	4,544.23	46,698.14 (109.93%)
	MNT	Short	65,000	45,145.75	0.7506	0.6942	37.42	3,672.14 (37.63%)
	BTC	Long	14	1,187,620	84,686.1	84,813	X	2,140.52 (3.61%)
0xe0cc85525563dadd56fdcd96581f7b587a2b2411	No position	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	-24,453	0
0xf467b892ddd18b4449e89fcf02a22f23cbf72d1d (Positions exceeding 10,000)	HYPE	Short	3,992.59	63,709.76	22.07	15.94	68.82	24,246.21 (82.56%)	-33,678	306,330.93
	VIRTUAL	Short	91,460	52,280.37	0.9815	0.5702	3.02	37,426.26 (208.46%)
	WLD	Short	60,000.6	43,992.44	3.86	0.7323	4.64	187,798.21 (810.19%)
	USUAL	Short	149,972.7	22,125.47	0.153	0.1472	1.64	867.34 (18.9%)
	ETH	Long	7.1002	11,548.48	1,479	1,626.1	X	1,053.67 (200.68%)
0xccf135ab352d561a15eb7be2a243cc4fcb7f0ab1	HYPE	Short	82,879.16	1,327,641.26	19.22	16.02	22.01	263,880.11 (49.71%)	-445,174	263,880
0x3c65c137bf380df7f5f61d9318c193b32a344fb0	HYPE	Short	53,853.92	864,032.29	19.89	16.05	21.35	206,601.63 (57.86%)	X	206,601.63

Other opportunities

On-chain DeFi mining yield products:

Project Name	Scallop（Blockchain：Sui） ←→ Token：sbUSDT
Participation Method	From the Scallop official website, access the lending pool, connect a wallet that supports Sui, and deposit sbUSDT into the sbUSDT vault.
Project Information	Scallop: A money market within the Sui ecosystem offering high-interest lending, low-cost borrowing, an AMM, and asset management tools.
Earnings Details	Token: sbUSDT APY: 12.27% (returns continuously subject to change)
Product Data	Token: sUSDe Total supply: 3.1M Total borrowed: 2.67M Utilization rate: 86.13% Available liquidity: 430.9K
Note	sbUSDT: USDT on the Sui chain, which can be obtained across chains using the official Sui Bridge with approximately 0.02% slippage.

Risk: The pool has a small fund size and poor liquidity, which may pose risks. Users should invest cautiously and conduct their own research.

Disclaimer

The development and market cap of stablecoins mentioned in the above content are speculative and based on market analysis at the time of writing and should not be interpreted as guaranteed outcomes. Market conditions can fluctuate widely and unpredictably due to numerous factors such as regulatory changes, market demand, and global economic developments. 

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