Trader’s note: ETF approval could be a sell-the-news event, but don’t let that shake your long-term conviction
by Jack Tan, CEO and Co-Founder of WOO
Bloomberg has published part of Tan's note, you can find it here.
From a trading perspective, I think it’s good to take some profits here and again once the ETF is approved. Risk assets like Nasdaq continue to be weak so I feel like there will be opportunities to buy lower. Everyone’s piled onto the ETF trade so it’s too crowded. Even if the ETF is approved before year-end, it’s a sell-the-news event if risk appetite and liquidity aren’t significantly better.
From a technical perspective, the longer-term MACD has recently turned higher, indicating a "buy the dip" mode. In the short term, it may be a bit overbought and could test some late FOMO chasers by going back to 31 or 30k.
There is a lot of investor FOMO surrounding the ETF potential, with CME's open interest exceeding that of Binance for BTC. Additionally, funding on CME is running at almost 15%, meaning that investors are willing to pay a 15% premium annually to own BTC futures. This indicates the level of greed by buyers, something that could get punished in the short-term.
Bitcoin anti-gravity phase: BTC could hit $75,000 in the coming months
Despite the short-term concerns, it’s hard not to be bullish on a longer timeframe.
Tan is foreseeing a potential 'anti-gravity phase' pushing BTC to $75,000 in the coming months as BTC becomes a flight-to-safety play in the face of money printing and dropping government bond demand.
While this week has seen really strong performance from altcoins, Tan also believes they lack the flight-to-safety characteristics that Bitcoin has, nor do they have the potential ETF narrative that ETH might be able to jump on in the coming months. Either way, it's encouraging to see positive narratives returning to crypto and volumes jumping across the board as a result. As some investors return following the chaos of 2022, WOO is going to do its part in rebuilding trust by maintaining our strict standards of transparency.
Read Tan's commentary on Bitcoin's anti-gravity phase on CoinDesk.
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