BTC marks first bullish shift since January 27
Market overview
US stocks opened flat, briefly rose, and then gradually pulled back. BTC reached a high of $87,500 before experiencing a sharp drop. On a 4-hour chart, BTC showed bullish signals. As long as it stays above $83,000, these signals remain intact. This marks the first shift to a bullish trend since the bearish signal on January 27. We should watch closely to see if BTC can sustain this bullish momentum. If it does, the next target could be $92,000 and beyond.
On March 20, US initial jobless claims came in at 223,000, slightly below the expected 224,000, with minimal impact. FedWatch data for December 25, 2025, shows a 13.2% chance of a 1-rate cut, 29.4% for a 2-rate cut, and 32% for a 3-rate cut. The Fed's dot plot indicates at least nine officials expect two rate cuts, four expect a 1-rate cut or no change, and two anticipate a 3-rate cut, deviating slightly from market expectations.
The US economic outlook, which was downgraded due to Trump's tariff policy and inflation concerns, is influencing Fed decisions. As more data emerges, Powell’s dovish stance could boost BTC liquidity in the medium to long term.
BTC-related indicators:
(1) 200-Week Moving Average Heatmap: The 200-week average cost is $44,873. During bear markets, Bitcoin's price typically bottoms near the 200-week moving average, but it is still a long way from that point.
(2) Escape Top Index: The current top is $243,909, and the bottom is $48,781. The short-term distance from the top is far, and there is also a certain distance from the bottom.
(3) CBBI Index: This index generates a "confidence score" by analyzing multiple on-chain and technical indicators in real time. The higher the score, the more overheated the market is (usually above 80). A lower score (below 20) indicates a good time to accumulate. The current score is 69.83, with this cycle's peak reaching 85+.
(4) Pi Cycle: Currently below the 111-day moving average, the top range is $150,986.
(5) MVRV Z-Score: The current score is 1.74, which is close to the value during the 2024 consolidation phase. The higher the score, the more overvalued BTC is. It is currently near the median, and if BTC drops to its lowest point, this score may become negative.
Key events
- Japanese listed company Metaplanet has appointed Eric Trump, the second son of Donald Trump, as a member of its Strategic Advisory Committee.
- US SEC has confirmed receipt of 21Shares' spot Polkadot ETF application.
- Solana-based memecoin release platform Pump.fun has launched a native decentralized exchange (DEX) called PumpSwap.
- Institutional crypto trading and management firm Canary Capital has submitted an S-1 registration filing with the US SEC to launch a PENGU ETF.
- Cryptocurrency derivatives trading platform Bitnomial has launched XRP futures regulated by the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).
- TON Foundation has raised over $400 million through token sales, participated in by Sequoia Capital.
- Crypto intelligence platform Kaito AI has tweeted that the decentralized AI network Allora is the next Pre-TGE project selected from the Yapper Launchpad.
- Confidential computing network Arcium has tweeted that its public testnet will launch on April 30.
- According to Bloomberg, Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse has stated that the XRP exchange-traded fund (ETF) will launched by the end of 2025 after the legal dispute between Ripple and the US SEC is resolved.
- Encrypted wallet Phantom has re-launched the token exchange feature on the Sui network, supported by the Sui ecosystem liquidity protocol Cetus.
Hot projects
Exchange updates
- WOO X has launched the TUT/USDT perpetual contract with up to 10x leverage.
- Coinbase has added AltLayer (ALT), Pendle (PENDLE), and Layer3 (L3) to the asset listing roadmap.
- Bitget has launched the BR/USDT perpetual contract with up to 20x leverage, along with Bedrock (BR) on PoolX and CandyBomb, featuring a total airdrop of 4.425 million BR, while also listing BID/USDT, SIREN/USDT, BANANAS31/USDT, and BROCCOLIF3B/USDT perpetual contracts.
- HTX has listed Mubarak (MUBARAK).
- Binance Alpha has launched Bedrock (BR), with its TGE ending on Binance Wallet and oversubscribed by 9653.21%, while Binance Wallet partnered with PancakeSwap to host the TGE, raising $1.25 million; meanwhile, Binance Launchpool will list Nillion (NIL) with the spot going live on March 24, and Binance has also launched perpetual contracts including TUT/USDT, BID/USDT, and BROCCOLIF3B/USDT with up to 25x leverage.
- Bybit has launched the NIL/USDT perpetual contract on pre-market and has also listed Bedrock (BR) and Venice Token (VVV).
- Decentralized exchange PancakeSwap has completed its perpetual system upgrade.
Industry landscape
- According to a statement released by the US SEC's Division of Corporation Finance, its position on proof-of-work (PoW) crypto mining is that both solo mining and mining pools do not fall under US securities laws, as they do not require the efforts of a central entity or entrepreneurial figure to generate profits.
- Blockchain-based data storage platform Walrus Foundation has completed a $140 million funding round, led by Standard Crypto.
- Uranium ore tokenization solution Uranium Digital has completed a $6.1 million seed funding round, led by Framework Ventures.
Emerging projects
Other opportunities
On-chain DeFi mining yield products:
Risk: Investors should proceed with caution and conduct their research.
Disclaimer
The development and market cap of stablecoins mentioned in the above content are speculative and based on market analysis at the time of writing and should not be interpreted as guaranteed outcomes. Market conditions can fluctuate widely and unpredictably due to numerous factors such as regulatory changes, market demand, and global economic developments.
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