BTC sees boost as rate cut speculation grows

Mainstream data observations

1. BTC core liquidation levels:

Long positions: Liquidation price at $77,584 with a liquidation amount of $852 million;Short positions: Liquidation price at $81,368 with a liquidation amount of $458 million.

Current BTC price: $79,770. Liquidations of long positions are evenly and tightly distributed, posing a risk of cascading liquidations. If the price drops below $77,584, it could trigger large-scale long liquidations, further driving the price downward.

2. ETH core liquidation levels:

Long positions: Liquidation price at $1,531.1 with a liquidation amount of $477 million;Short positions: Liquidation price at $1,612.1 with a liquidation amount of $104 million.

Current ETH price: $1,591. Long liquidations are relatively concentrated and the liquidation amount is significant, indicating a strong bearish sentiment for ETH.

3. Total stablecoin market cap: $233.857B

The total market cap remains largely unchanged. PYUSD has issued an additional 72.33M tokens, primarily minted on Berachain. Considering the potential capital demand on Berachain, exploring yield products within the Berachain ecosystem might be worthwhile.

4. BTC market cap share: 63.44%

TOTAL 3 market cap: $720.71BBTC's market cap share has steadily increased and now exceeds 62%. TOTAL3's market cap dropped by 6.89% on April 7 and hit a low of 660.04B, reaching the data levels seen at the end of 2024 and before Trump assumed office. On April 8, it was slightly retraced.

5. Current miner breakeven price: $53,795.08

52% of miners are operating above their shutdown price. Currently, the shutdown price for mainstream mining equipment is around $66,000, which can be regarded as a key price level for observation.

6. Bitcoin MVRV-Z score: 1.50The MVRV ratio is the quotient of the minimum market value (current market cap) over the realized value (the sum of all BTC values at their last movement). In the short term, BTC's price may hit a low. If the MVRV falls below one, BTC might be entering a buying opportunity zone.
7. Bitcoin BVIV score: 57.49%On April 8, the index slightly pulled back, and the potential for BTC price volatility was somewhat reduced compared to April 7, but it remains at a moderately high level and should be considered alongside other market data.

[Market rating] BTC rebounded after touching bottom yesterday, but its core is constrained by external factors such as the US stock market and Trump's tariff policies. The focus now is on whether BTC can break through the $82,000 price point. Currently, the market's bull/bear sentiment score is 50 (cautiously bearish).

[Below 50: Bearish; 60–80: Neutral; Above 80: Bullish]

Market overview

Bitcoin continuously fell to a low near $74,500 under the impact of tariff policies until Western buyers began to gradually enter during pre-market US trading. Once the US market opened, fake news about a 90‑day tariff delay triggered a surge, pushing BTC up to $81,200. It then entered a consolidation phase, currently holding around $80,000. If BTC can break through $82,000, there is hope for a trend reversal; 74,500 may represent the bottom of this correction, and if it cannot hold above that level, the upward move might simply be a rebound off 74,500, leaving room for further new lows. However, candlestick analysis suggests that once the bottom in this cycle is confirmed, BTC will experience a sustained rebound.

The S&P 500 index dropped as low as around 4,835, with a peak correction of 21.3%, reaching an attractive buying range. If it further declines to the 4,500–4,000 range, US stocks would offer high cost-effectiveness, potentially prompting a rapid reflow of funds into US equities that could drive a global asset rebound. The Nasdaq fell to 15,603 with a peak correction of 22.7%. This round of tariffs has primarily affected the global asset allocation of US tech companies, as the tariff policies may alter their valuation logic, warranting continued observation.

Macro overview

On April 7, in response to China’s equivalent imposition of a 34% tariff, Trump announced plans to impose an additional 50% new tariff on Chinese imports, bringing the total tariff rate to 104%. He noted that most other countries will not levy tariffs on the US and have signaled a willingness to negotiate, implying that eventually, all countries might return to the negotiation table. At this critical juncture, the longer the standoff persists, the more likely the tariff war could escalate into a financial conflict, potentially causing global stock markets to decline more than expected. Additionally, on April 7, the Federal Reserve held a closed-door meeting, during which market expectations for rate cuts this year were adjusted to 125 basis points; if the impact of the tariff policy on US stocks intensifies, the likelihood of a rate cut next week may rise to 40%, which is a short-term positive for the market.

Key events

• Asset manager Teucrium has launched the first leveraged ETF linked to XRP.
• Donald Trump family crypto project World Liberty Financial (WLFI) has released a governance proposal,  planning to airdrop a small amount of stablecoin USD1 to all WLFI token holders as a test.
• According to the Washington Post, Elon Musk has directly appealed to Donald Trump to revoke the new tariffs, but the effort has not yet yielded results.
• According to Bloomberg, crypto conglomerate Galaxy Digital is planning to go listing on Nasdaq after the Special Meeting.
• According to Token Terminal data, the number of monthly active addresses for Aptos ecosystem apps has reached an all-time high.

Hot projects

Token		Description	Market Cap（$）
	REMUS Animal de-extinction protection concept meme	Gene startup Colossal has incubated three young specimens that contain ancient DNA extracted from the remains of extinct animal ancestors. To protect endangered species and achieve de-extinction, REMUS was created—it is born from a mixed-breed dog carrying ancient dire wolf DNA.	6.3 million
	IVANKA Celebrity meme	IVANKA is a meme based on Trump’s daughter, and after launching on Solana, it has attracted 18,800 token-holding addresses, with a 24‑hour trading volume exceeding $51 million.	8.9 million
	House Community meme	$HOUSE is a memecoin based on the Solana blockchain designed to express dissatisfaction with the “unattainable” modern real estate market. Through humor and satire, it challenges traditional homeownership concepts with the bold slogan “1 Housecoin = 1 home.” This narrative not only playfully critiques unaffordable housing prices but also aims to attract community members frustrated with the real estate status quo, becoming a symbol of resistance.	8.1 million

Exchange updates

• WOO X has listed XAUT/USDT perpetual contracts with up to 20x leverage.
• Bitget has launched a product called "Onchain," aimed at seamlessly connecting centralized exchanges (CEX) with decentralized exchanges (DEX), providing users with a more convenient, efficient, and secure on-chain trading experience.
• OKX Wallet plugin has stopped supporting wallets without private keys.
• Binance has partnered with global payments technology provider Worldpay to introduce Apple Pay and Google Pay options for easier fiat-to-crypto on-ramps, while also listing VET/USDC and ZEN/USDC trading pairs.
• Decentralized exchange aggregator Jupiter has hosted a JUP gathering and will launched a new X account.

Industry landscape

• The US SEC Crypto Task Force will hold a public roundtable titled "Between Blockchain and Dilemma: Tailoring Regulation for Crypto Trading" on April 11, aimed at clarifying crypto regulation.
• Bitcoin DeFi aggregation protocol  Sats Terminal has completed a $1.7 million Pre-Seed funding round, led by Coinbase Ventures.
• The yield-bearing stablecoin protocol Cap has completed a $11 million funding round, participated in by Franklin Templeton.
• The crypto-to-fiat application P2P.me has completed a $2 million seed round, participated in by Coinbase Ventures.
• At the "2025 Hong Kong Web3 Carnival" conference, Duncan Chiu, a member of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region Legislative Council, stated that stablecoins will be considered products rather than securities.
• Cai Fengyi, Executive Director of the Investment Products Department at the Hong Kong Securities Regulatory Commission, has stated that the regulator will allow licensed spot ETFs to offer staking services.

Emerging projects

Token	REMUS	House	pep
Description	REMUS centers its narrative on the resurrection of a dire wolf, extinct for millennia, through genetic engineering—making it one of the first animals in history to be revived from extinction. It was reborn on October 1, 2024, using ancient DNA extracted from fossil remains to restore life, and it even graced the cover of Time magazine, with Elon Musk leaving a comment.。	Housecoin, built around the core meme "1 HOUSE = 1 HOUSE," satirizes the high-priced challenges of real estate, constructing a narrative in which cryptocurrency serves as an alternative "digital real estate" asset. It merges this concept with a self-deprecating culture among young people facing a housing crisis, thereby forming a symbol of resistance against the traditional financial system.	PEP is a Solana-based meme coin inspired by a smaller version of PEPE and is actively promoted by Twitter influencer @Ga__ke, who has 58K followers.
Price	$0.005037	$0.007177	$0.002071
Market Cap（$）	5.03 million	7.17 million	2.07 million
Token Holders	8,048	6,779	9,827

Token	SHITCOIN	HIBER	MAG
Description	The Titcoin imitation project, self-mockingly named a "shit coin," attracts attention by positioning itself against mainstream cryptocurrency culture, with its core narrative revolving around the absurd concept of the "ultimate Bitcoin" while building a community identity rooted in dark humor.	HIBER centers its narrative on AI infrastructure, combining the community features of HuggingFace and Reddit to create an ecosystem focused on the development and integration of large language models (LLM) for the industry. Its cultural core lies in merging open-source AI tools with a decentralized community collaboration model.	Magnetix is positioned as a “Neuro-Religion” cultural token, inspired by the Law of Attraction. The project aims to drive financial growth and personal success through collective belief, positive thinking, and community energy. It advocates enhancing community energy through gratitude, visualization, and collective belief to attract wealth and opportunities. By combining this philosophy with Web3 technology, it seeks to create a unique economic ecosystem. The token previously dropped 80% from its high but has recently experienced a strong rebound.
Price	$0.001223	$0.001480	$0.01233
Market Cap（$）	1.22 million	1.48 million	12.33 million
Token Holders	1,113	5,702	5,755

Hyperliquid Smart Money tracking

Although the market has experienced a rebound recently, the current tracking of smart money positions indicates that most short positions are still maintained, with no clear signs of closing.

However, there are a few signals indicating a shift in strategy. One smart money address (0xe0cc...) has flipped HYPE from a short to a long position and has also gone long on Fartcoin. Both long positions are currently showing floating profits ranging from 80% to 120%. This may suggest an entry at the early stage of the rebound to capture short-term gains, or it could represent a localized recovery in sentiment for small-cap coins.

The observed changes in positions indicate that although the overall market is rebounding, mainstream smart money has not closed out its short positions and continues to maintain a bearish stance. Only a few addresses have started testing long positions. Overall, market risk appetite remains cautious, and it will be important to monitor whether more "short-to-long" conversions occur.

Address	Trading pair	Long/Short	Position size	Average cost	Current price	Liquidation price	Unrealized PnL	PnL for this address in the last 7 days
0xb3e475368ed0fa0ad23c04de0423d48a0758806f	HYPE	Short	1,693,044.02	21.1	12.38	31.89	1,207,059.5 (124.69%)	+127,645(61%)
	PURR	Short	28,249.11	0.2908	0.0769	7.4	78,592.95 (220.66%)
	BNB	Short	362,395.9	656.56	560.13	5,290.71	62,459.55 (147.03%)
	MNT	Short	45,397.3	0.7506	0.6984	44.58	3,428.39 (35.13%)
	BTC	Long	1,121,288	83,475	80,092	X	-65,745.48 (-110.91%)
0xe0cc85525563dadd56fdcd96581f7b587a2b2411 (Switching from short to long positions)	HYPE	Long	246,240	9.57	12.38	X	55,257.89 (86.63%)	+310,214(+19%)
	Fartcoin	Long	178,005	0.4224	0.5937	X	51,572.5 (122.09%)
0xf467b892ddd18b4449e89fcf02a22f23cbf72d1d (Positions exceeding 10,000)	HYPE	Short	61,992.99	22.07	12.38	60.78	47,678.25 (129.84%)	+29,848
	VIRTUAL	Short	44,267.55	0.9815	0.4841	3.23	$45,494.86 (253.4%)
	WLD	Short	39,399.39	3.86	0.6567	5.05	193,559.47 (835.04%)
	BADGER	Short	11,841.85	4.31	1.13	25.13	33,271.85 (368.72%)
0xccf135ab352d561a15eb7be2a243cc4fcb7f0ab1	HYPE	Short	1,503,501.34	19.22	12.38	20.82	806,424.03 (104.76%)	+66,672 (145%)
0x3c65c137bf380df7f5f61d9318c193b32a344fb0	HYPE	Short	735,144.31	19.89	12.38	20.82	808,226.79 (104.99%)	+69,556 (140%)

Smart Money selection logic:

• Outstanding PnL in the past seven days
• Trading frequency not exceeding 50 trades per week, excluding high-frequency bot trading
• Win rate of over 50%
• No major drawdowns in cumulative PnL over the past three months

Other opportunities

On-chain DeFi mining yield products:

Project Name	WBERA|HONEY（Blockchain：Berachain） ←→ Token： WBERA|HONEY
Participation Method	From the Infrared official website, navigate to Vaults, connect a Berachain-compatible wallet, and deposit BYUSD|HONEY into the corresponding liquidity pool (which is equivalent to delegating your funds to Infrared).
Project Information	Berachain: A high-performance, EVM-compatible blockchain built on the liquidity-proof consensus. Infrared: An application based on Berachain’s liquidity-proof consensus mechanism, offering PoL vaults and iBGT liquid staking derivatives. Kodiak: Berachain’s native liquidity hub, which combines concentrated liquidity with automated liquidity management.
Earnings Details	Staked currency: WBERA|HONEY iBGT APR: 78.33% (Yield is determined by the weighting of the staked token's share and is continuously variable; the yield is in iBGT.)
Product Data	Token: WBERA|HONEY Total token market staked amount: 10.75M Profit model: AMM
Note	HONEY is the native stablecoin on Berachain. iBGT is the staked liquidity version of BGT provided by Infrared.finance, which can be directly sold or exchanged on the Berachain official website. Ways to Obtain WBERA: 1. You can directly use the website Swap. However, when swapping directly (for example, USDT → BERA), you will encounter a slippage of 0.2%. 2. You can also obtain additional yield through fatBERA. Details: By staking BERA on Berachain (note that withdrawals are currently not supported when staking BERA), you receive an equal amount of fatBERA. Staking fatBERA on fatBERA (a cooperative staking platform on Berachain) yields an APR of 4.28% (yield paid in WBERA). The total staked amount on fatBERA is 11.27M.

Risk: The total amount of tokens staked in the current pool is relatively small. Users should exercise caution when investing and conducting their research.

Disclaimer

The development and market cap of stablecoins mentioned in the above content are speculative and based on market analysis at the time of writing and should not be interpreted as guaranteed outcomes. Market conditions can fluctuate widely and unpredictably due to numerous factors such as regulatory changes, market demand, and global economic developments. 

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