BTC shows relative strength against equities

Mainstream data observations

1. BTC core liquidation levels

Long positions: Liquidation price at $78,412 with a liquidation amount of $1.138 billion

Short positions: Liquidation price at $82,577 with a liquidation amount of $1.234 billion.                                                                                                                                        

The current BTC price is $80,710. Long position risk is relatively controllable and liquidation prices are concentrated. A price level of 78,400 can be regarded as a key support level to watch.

2. ETH core liquidation levels

Long positions: Liquidation price at $1,523.5 with a liquidation amount of $98.053 million.                                                                                                                                     Short positions: Liquidation price at $1,557.5 with a liquidation amount of $253 million.                                                                                                                                         The current ETH price is $1,543.7. The intensity of short liquidations is high and concentrated with the main liquidation point at 1,557.5 and a large liquidation amount making it a key price level to watch. Liquidation intensity for long positions is evenly distributed and the risk is relatively controllable although caution is still needed regarding the risk of cascading liquidations.

3. Total stablecoin market cap

The total stablecoin market cap is $233.559B. The total market cap has slightly declined. BUIDL has issued an additional 150.12 million tokens with an increase of 0.01 % on Aptos, Avalanche, Polygon, Arbitrum, and Optimism and an increase of 7.71 % on Ethereum which constitutes the current total.

4. BTC market cap share: 63.30%                                                                                    TOTAL3 market cap: $742.64B                                                                                       BTC market cap share remains at a moderately high level and is supported by market news TOTAL3 market cap has increased.
5. Current miner shutdown priceThe current miner shutdown price is $53,318.18. The proportion of mining equipment operating above the shutdown price has decreased to 41 %. At present, the shutdown price for mainstream mining equipment is around $60,000 which is a key price level to observe.
6. Bitcoin MVRV-Z scoreThe MVRV ratio is calculated by dividing the minimum market value (current market cap) by the realized value (the total value of all BTC at the time of their last movement). After a price low was reached last night the corresponding index level retraced.
7. Bitcoin BVIV scoreThe BVIV score reached a low of 54.43 % on April 10 then experienced a slight rebound to 57.39 % and fell again on April 11 to 56.96 %. BTC price also experienced a slight rebound compared to last night.

[Market rating]

On the evening of April 10, influenced by the US stock market, BTC dropped to 78,500. On April 11, Trump signed the first cryptocurrency law and abolished the IRS DeFi broker rule. Subsequently, the market rebounded. The main influencing factor in the current market remains policy-related; uncertainty in policy has led to increased volatility in both BTC and US stocks, while safe-haven funds flowed into gold. Currently, the market's bull/bear sentiment score is 55 (neutral).

[Below 50: Bearish; 60–80: Neutral; Above 80: Bullish]

Market overview

Spurred by a decline in US equities, BTC dipped as low as around 78,400 before following stocks’ broader oscillation upward to recover some of its losses. From a purely technical standpoint, the inability to stay above 80,000 suggests that the rally from 74,500 may have been just a rebound unless BTC can break above and firmly hold the previous high of 83,500. Currently, Bitcoin’s moves are heavily influenced by the US stock open, although its performance remains relatively stronger than equities. We anticipate that BTC will carve out a bottoming range amid a sustained US stock rebound, with 74,500 likely marking this cycle’s low or a point very close to it.

Macro overview

Expectations of a US recession have risen. Last week, Goldman Sachs sharply raised the probability of a US downturn over the next 12 months from 35% to 45%, and cut its Q4 GDP growth forecast from 1.0% to 0.5%. Overnight, the US dollar index briefly fell below the 100 mark, while gold surged to a record high of $3,200 per ounce, reflecting a rapid build‑up of risk‑off sentiment. The 30‑year US Treasury yield spiked to 4.9% amid large‑scale Treasury sell‑offs. For March the CPI decreased 0.1 % on a month-on-month basis and increased 2.4 % on a year-on-year basis. Core CPI in March increased by 0.1 % on a month-on-month basis and by 2.8 % on a year-on-year basis. The year-on-year increase remains well above the Federal Reserve's long-term target of 2 %. The US Federal Reserve has shown little inclination to inject liquidity, directly contributing to continued equity weakness. Compared to 2020 when the Federal Reserve injected massive liquidity during the sharp stock market decline triggered by the pandemic, the Federal Reserve is still restraining liquidity release in response to inflation caused by tariffs and is indirectly counteracting Trump's aggressive tariff policy.

Key events

• Vitalik Buterin, co-founder of Ethereum, has shared a simple privacy roadmap for Ethereum L1.
• RWA protocol Paimon Finance has partnered with venture capital firm UGF to tokenize its equity positions in SpaceX and Figure AI.
• Spark, a sub-DAO within the Sky ecosystem, has launched the Spark Rewards program, initially distributing $6 million worth of RED in collaboration with modular blockchain oracle RedStone.
• The US White House has issued an order to revise reciprocal tariff rates, stating that cumulative tariffs on most goods imported from China will rise to 145%, effective from April 10, 2025.
• Base Chain AI Agents creation protocol Virtuals Protocol has announced a new fee distribution mechanism that will return 40% of subDAO revenues to creators' wallets.
• Decentralized autonomous organization ParagonsDAO has received over 2.01 million PROMPT tokens, with 90% allocated to PDT stakers.
• Nonprofit organization Wayfinder Foundation has announced that its PROMPT airdrop claim is now live.
• Asset manager VanEck has applied to list an Avalanche ETF on the Nasdaq with the US SEC to offer indirect exposure to the AVAX token.
• Decentralized data infrastructure platform Mind Network (FHE) has opened its airdrop claim and released its tokenomics model, with 7.5% of the total airdrop supply allocated at Token Generation Event (TGE).
• Gamified Telegram mini-app PAWS will hold its Token Generation Event (TGE) on April 16.
• According to Foresight News, 5% of the total token supply in the token economic model of Morph ecosystem's decentralized trading aggregator BulbaSwap will be airdropped to Morph Pay ecosystem users.
• Decentralized organization the Babylon Foundation has announced that the BABY token airdrop has been completed.
• The US SEC has approved several Ethereum spot ETF option trading applications, including those from BlackRock and Bitwise, and confirmed the acceptance of the Cboe BZX exchange's filing for the Fidelity Solana ETF 19b-4 application.
• The ChatGPT INS account has posted cat images featuring the Solana logo and hidden CA, which may have been selected from community submissions by ChatGPT.
• Tether's cross-chain stablecoin USDT0 has been launched on the L1 blockchain Sei Network.

Hot projects

Token		Description	Market Cap（$）
	MTN VC DAO concept	Through community token sales, nearly $500,000 was raised in just seven days. The funds raised will be used for future investment projects, which will be decided through a voting process. Solana has made recommendations, and the community users hope that MTN will grow into a VC DAO similar to a16z.	6.1 million
	42069COIN Elon Musk-related concept	The number 420, often mentioned by Elon Musk, also has a marijuana connotation. The pure number is considered a more "pure" meme token, and many diverse memes have been created around the number 42069 in the community, which has gained significant popularity. Currently, there are 3,974 addresses holding the token.	3.3 million
	BUTTCOIN BTC concept meme	Buttcoin is the memecoin version of Bitcoin. The concept of Buttcoin originated in 2013, inspired by a four-minute and 20-second YouTube video titled "The Next Bitcoin?" created by James D. McMurray two days after Dogecoin's release. In the video, Buttcoin was humorously referred to as a simpler, more approachable alternative to Bitcoin. In 2025, users released the token on Pump.fun.	21.52 million

Exchange updates

• WOO has unveiled its 2025 product roadmap, which includes the launch of WOO APP 2.0 in the second half of 2025 to unify trading and investing under one seamless interface, and the listing of Babylon (BABY) on WOO X.
• Bitget has listed Mind Network (FHE) and Wayfinder (PROMPT), launched Onchain trading projects CRYPTOAI and LeBarbie, introduced BABY/USDT perpetual contracts with up to 20x leverage, enabled live trading permissions for invited users on its unified account feature, and added a token contract risk detection function on Bitget Wallet supporting six major blockchains. Additionally, Bitget PoolX and CandyBomb have listed Babylon (BABY), allowing users to earn BABY airdrops through locking or trading.
• Binance has launched Babylon (BABY) leverage, contracts, and simple earning services, listed WalletConnect (WCT) on Binance Launchpool, added Mind Network (FHE) and Wayfinder (PROMPT) on Binance Alpha, introduced the Streamr (DATA) trading pair on Binance.US, announced specific projects for its second batch of voting for new coin activities, including tokens like ZEC, JASMY, and FTT, and adjusted the funding fee settlement frequency for TROY/USDT and GAS/USDT perpetual contracts from once every four hours to once every two hours.
• Coinbase has listed Wayfinder (PROMPT) and Coinbase International Exchange has launched COMP/USDT, UXLINK/USDT, and ATH/USDT perpetual contracts.
• The dYdX Foundation has released a temporary treasury update proposal, expanding the buyback venue to over-the-counter (OTC) buybacks. 
• Coinbase Advanced has listed NIL/USDT, VINE/USDT, GUN/USDT, and EDGE/USDT perpetual contracts.
• Bybit has listed Mind Network (FHE).
• OKX has partnered with Standard Chartered Bank, Brevan Howard, and Franklin Templeton to launch a collateralized mirror program for tokenized money market funds under the VARA framework in Dubai.
• Hong Kong’s Securities and Futures Commission has approved virtual asset staking, and HashKey Exchange has been approved to launch Ethereum ETF staking services.

Industry landscape

• Web3 social protocol Towns Protocol has completed a $10 million Series B funding round, led by a16z crypto.
• According to NPR, the Donald Trump administration has paused plans to tighten restrictions on sales of Nvidia's H20 chip to companies in China.
• Crypto insurance company Meanwhile has completed a $40 million Series A funding round, led by Framework Ventures.
• The US SEC has released guidelines for the issuance and registration disclosure of securities in the cryptocurrency market,  to further clarify the applicability of federal securities laws in the cryptocurrency market.

Emerging projects

Token	GOONER	Wo	42069COIN
Description	Based on dark humor and satire of online addiction to adult content, it builds community identity through a self-deprecating "idiot" subculture and leverages controversial topics to promote content co-creation. The project attempts to transform fringe internet culture into crypto meme symbols, forming a countercultural gathering place.	It constructs an AI-driven Web3 tool ecosystem that lowers the barriers to blockchain usage through functions such as intelligent token scanning and wallet analysis. The core narrative focuses on empowering the Solana ecosystem with AI technology, emphasizing practical tool development over pure meme hype.	Centered around the number 42069, it builds subcultural memes by blending cannabis culture, sexual innuendo, and futuristic fantasy, thereby shaping an absurdist crypto community belief. The core idea is to use digital symbols to create a collective identity and reinforce a "cult-like" sense of cultural belonging.
Price	$0.001571	$0.001226	$0.003809
Market Cap（$）	1.57 million	1.22 million	3.8 million
Token Holders	5,307	3,685	3,964

Token	DARK	House	CHADETTE
Description	Dark Eclipse is an infinitely enhanced artificial intelligence that automatically integrates new tools into the user's AI, allowing it to upgrade over time. Its code is currently open source, and the product has not yet been launched.	$HOUSE is a memecoin based on the Solana blockchain, designed to express discontent with the "unattainable" modern real estate market. It challenges traditional notions of homeownership with humor and satire, proposing the bold slogan: "1 Housecoin = 1 Home." This narrative not only satirizes the excessively high housing prices but also aims to attract community members who feel frustrated with the current state of real estate, forming a countercultural symbol of resistance.	CHADETTE, a memecoin on Solana, centers its narrative on female empowerment. By reimagining the dominant image in internet culture through the concept of "Chadette," it emphasizes community resilience and builder culture while combining commercialization strategies to shape a unique brand identity.
Price	$0.005795	$0.01387	$0.006328
Market Cap（$）	5.79 million	13.87 million	6.32 million
Token Holders	8,652	7,345	1,078

Hyperliquid Smart Money tracking

The smart money is still largely holding a high proportion of short positions, but the strength of the bears has further weakened, especially with HYPE. Multiple large short positions have seen their unrealized profits drop significantly from their peak, and the profit/loss situation has started to deteriorate.

In the case of HYPE, several addresses, including 0xb3e4..., 0xccf1..., and 0x3c65..., continue to hold large short positions, but the unrealized profit has decreased from 130% to about 69%, and the unrealized loss has noticeably expanded. For example, 0xb3e4... still has an unrealized profit of 890,000 USDT, but has already given back 380,000, indicating increasing pressure on the shorts.

Other short positions in PURR, BNB, MNT, and others are also facing shrinking unrealized profits. While they are still profitable, the trend is weakening.

On the other hand, the address 0xe0cc... has shifted to a short strategy, moving from previously long positions in Fartcoin and HYPE to shorting DOGE. However, the DOGE short is currently at a small loss, suggesting that the shift in strategy is still in a wait-and-see phase and has not yet gained an advantage.

Some smart money, like 0xf467..., continues to hold short positions in assets such as HYPE, VIRTUAL, WLD, and USUAL. Among them, the WLD short still has an unrealized profit of 81%, but this is slightly lower than the previous day, indicating that even strong short positions are being constrained by the overall market rebound.

BTC's long positions continue to face losses. 0xb3e4...'s long position is currently at an unrealized loss of about $60,000, continuing the weak performance from the past few days. It is suggested to watch for signs of continuous unwinding or a reversal of positions to confirm whether this marks a turning point in the bear market.

Address	Trading pair	Long/Short	Position size	Average cost	Current price	Liquidation price	Unrealized PnL	7-day PnL for the address	Unrealized profit and loss
0xb3e475368ed0fa0ad23c04de0423d48a0758806f (Position unchanged)	HYPE	Short	2,007,489.99	21.1	14.64	32.07	892,887.8 (92.23%)	-387,154	964,290.53
	PURR	Short	31,137.66	0.2908	0.0848	6.6	75,544.21 (212.1%)
	BNB	Short	374,333.42	656.56	578.36	4,788.96	50,612.61 (119.14%)
	MNT	Short	45,004.7	0.7506	0.6925	39.75	3,725.44 (38.18%)
	BTC	Long	1,125,908	84,686.1	80,436	X	-59,851.48 (-100.96%)
0xe0cc85525563dadd56fdcd96581f7b587a2b2411 (Switching from long to  short positions)	DOGE	Short	783,400	0.1559	0.1568	0.28	-4,360.57 (-5.59%)	+267,325	-2,510
0xf467b892ddd18b4449e89fcf02a22f23cbf72d1d (Positions exceeding 10,000)	HYPE	Short	73,780.5	22.07	14.8	60.06	35,925.7 (97.83%)	+3,938	328,867
	VIRTUAL	Short	42,094.46	0.9815	0.4603	3.08	47,707.28 (265.72%)
	WLD	Short	42,295.62	3.86	0.7047	4.88	189,529.83 (817.66%)
	USUAL	Short	21,929.01	0.153	0.1465	1.74	982.82 (21.41%)
	ETH	Long	10,918.69	1,479	1,607.5	X	401.87 (76.54%)
0xccf135ab352d561a15eb7be2a243cc4fcb7f0ab1	HYPE	Short	1,409,674.45	19.22	14.81	21.17	421,466.38 (69.13%)	-282,647	423,560.43
0x3c65c137bf380df7f5f61d9318c193b32a344fb0	HYPE	Short	869,448.96	19.89	14.81	20.82	422,989.32 (69.38%)	-281,505	422,037

Other opportunities

On-chain DeFi mining yield products:

Project Name	Upshift（Blockchain：Ethereum） ←→ Token：USDC
Participation Method	From the Upshift official website, go to Deposit, connect to Ethereum, and deposit USDC into the Upshift USDC vault.
Project Information	Upshift: A blockchain-based yield platform powered by August Digital. August: An infrastructure provider that enables institutions to clear, settle, and margin digital asset transactions on-chain.
Earnings Details	Token: USDC APY: 7.22% (yield may vary; actual annualized yield is 7.22% + Upshift Points 5x)
Earnings Details	Token: USDC Total Staked: 34.48M Lock-up Period: 24h Withdrawal Fees: None
Note	Vault Yield: USDC is lent to blue-chip cryptocurrencies and RWA collateral markets to optimize yield. Users who deposit USDC will receive upUSDC as a receipt token, which can be used in other DeFi projects to earn additional yield. The utility of Upshift Points has not been disclosed.

Users are advised to invest cautiously and conduct their own research.

Disclaimer

The development and market cap of stablecoins mentioned in the above content are speculative and based on market analysis at the time of writing and should not be interpreted as guaranteed outcomes. Market conditions can fluctuate widely and unpredictably due to numerous factors such as regulatory changes, market demand, and global economic developments. 

The information provided in this article is for general informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, legal, or professional advice of any kind. While we have made every effort to ensure that the information contained herein is accurate and up-to-date, we make no guarantees as to its completeness or accuracy. The content is based on information available during writing and may be subject to change.

Please note that this article includes references to third-party websites and data provided solely for convenience and informational purposes. We do not endorse or assume any responsibility for the content, accuracy, or reliability of any information, products, or services offered by third parties.

Cryptocurrencies involve significant risk and are NOT suitable for the majority of investors. The value of digital currencies can be extremely volatile, and you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite before participating in any staking or investment activities.

We strongly recommend that you seek independent advice from a qualified professional before making any investment or financial decisions related to cryptocurrencies. We shall in NO case be liable for any loss or damage arising directly or indirectly from the use of or reliance on the information contained in this article.