Exercise caution during BTC halving due to possible false breakouts

April 9, 2024

I. Mainstream exchange news

• Binance lists Tensor (TNSR).
• Binance adds Tensor(TNSR) on Earn, Convert, Margin & Futures.
• Coinbase plans to list Tensor (TNSR).
• OKX to list TNSR/USDT perpetual contract.
• HashKey Group obtains a license in Bermuda, to launch the HashKey Global trading platform in the future.

II. Mainstream projects and trending events

• Saga's mainnet to launch in stages, the first stage is on setting up a security chain.
• MakerDAO allocates ¥600 million worth of DAI to USDe and sUSDe.
• Defiance ETFs submits an application for a 2x leveraged Ethereum futures ETF.
• The US SEC delays its decision on Bitwise and Grayscale's Bitcoin spot ETF options trading applications.
• 1inch partners with Mastercard and Baanx to launch a Web3 debit card.
• TokenFi developers propose a new plan to enhance the benefits of TOKEN holders.
• Solana developers are designing solutions for the Solana network congestion issue, according to Solana co-founder.
• The TON ecosystem's Web3-native smartphone, the Universal Phone, begins pre-sale at $99.

III. Funding news

• Sora Ventures raises $3 million, and launches the Runes Liquid Fund.
• Curve ecosystem's stablecoin lending platform Lambda completes an angel round of funding of $1.8 million.
• Lumoz completes a token funding of $6 million with a valuation of $120 million.

IV. Regulatory news

• Binance executive Tigran Gambaryan proclaims himself innocent in a Nigerian court.

V. Popular projects 

Market Overview

BTC can be divided into three ranges based on technical analysis: below $68,000 is the adjustment range, $68,000-$71,700 is the fluctuation range, and above $71,700 is the strong range. On April 8th, BTC reached a high of $72,798, and is currently experiencing a short retracement to around $71,400; overall it remains strong. Most copycat coins are lagging, and the market cap dominance of BTC continues to increase, with the expectation of breaking new highs. However, caution is advised around the time of halving due to potential false breakouts.

Bitcoin Spot ETF

As of April 8th, data shows that the net inflow total of Bitcoin spot ETFs was at $12.36 billion, with a single-day net outflow of $245 million, and a single-day transaction volume of $3.15 billion. The net assets of ETFs account for 4.26% of the BTC market value. Key observations include:

GBTC: The daily net outflow was $303 million, and the cumulative net outflow amounted to $15.81 billion. The daily turnover reached $695 million, and the net asset value stood at $22.82 billion.

IBIT: The daily net inflow totaled $21 million, which is the second-lowest net inflow in history. The cumulative net inflow reached $14.79 billion. The daily turnover data and asset value have not been updated yet. 

FBTC: The daily net inflow totaled $62.8 million, and the cumulative net inflow reached $7.96 billion. The daily turnover data stood at $423 billion with the current net asset value standing at $10.81 billion.

As BTC sharply rose, ETFs experienced an overall net outflow, indicating that the surge in BTC prompted increased sell-offs of ETFs as users sought to capitalize on profits. During periods of BTC trading sideways, we typically observe a larger net inflow of BTC or a stable net inflow. For market participants, the cost-effectiveness of purchasing Bitcoin spot ETFs is greater. During periods of BTC decline, ETF trading volumes often see rapid increases, with both net inflows and outflows occurring, indicating market divergences.

TNSR announces token economic model

The total supply of tokens is 1 billion, with 55% allocated to the community, of which 12.5% is for initial airdrops. Core contributors hold 27%, investors and advisors hold 9%, and future fundraising and development reserve hold 9%. Within the community treasury, 12.5% of the total supply will be immediately distributed to Treasure Boxes holders and Tensorians via an initial airdrop. The remaining 42.5% will be used for incentive programs, liquidity provision, and grants beneficial to the Tensor ecosystem. Compared with Blur, the overall return of Tensor is relatively average. However, Binance and OKX's prompt support has left certain expectations for market speculation. Currently, the FDV of both BLUR and TNSR is around $1.7 billion. It's worth continuous observation.

BORED memecoin launched by Twitter KOL with 1.6m followers

BORED is a memecoin initiated by the famous Twitter KOL @BoredElonMusk on Base. The total token supply is 3.14 billion, with 40% allocated to members, 40% to the liquidity pool, and 20% to Boredcaster NFT holders. The NFT was first released at the end of April, users can use ETH to participate in the pre-sale of 40% of tokens (members' portion). The project team will then permanently lock the other 40% of tokens and corresponding ETH into Uniswap V2 as LP. 

gmAI continuously attracts attention

gmAI (Consistently Gaining Recent Attention): gmAI, a project initiated by the founder of Whales Market, provides a robust API and SDK for developers, enabling effortless integration of AI functionalities into their dApps. These APIs and SDKs are underpinned by AI models that are pre-trained and continuously updated with real-time data streams.

The tokenomics for gmAI was revealed on April 1st, with a total token supply of 1 billion. The distribution is as follows: 55% allocated to the community, this portion to be unlocked gradually over the length of 8 years; 20% detailed for pre-sale, which will be fully distributed at the Token Generation Event (TGE); 10% assigned to the foundation, set to be unlocked over a period of 6 years; lastly, 15% has been designated for liquidity and airdrops.

The gmAI mainnet is set to launch in the third week of April, after which the GM token will be quickly deployed.

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