Range-bound trading continues #TradingOutlook - Powered by KTG
BTC’s range-bound trading continues. Or…will there be any surprises ahead?
BTC is still staying in the range - for more than 2 weeks already. We entered last week trading in the middle of it.
On Monday, BTC sold off and retested the lower band at $26,500 on the back of the news that CFTC sued Binance and CZ over regulatory violation.
However, sellers couldn’t push the market lower even though FUD kept on building.
As the market didn’t want to go further down, it eventually went back up - shorts started to get squeezed late on Tuesday and over the next two days.
Early on Thursday, BTC pushed through $28,900 and even got to $29,200 but was immediately sold off back to the range – another fake out - something we experienced a few times in the previous week.
Softer PCE on Friday gave BTC a bounce but not enough to send the price to new highs. Eventually we finished the week still in the range and again almost exactly where we started.
Not much has changed on BTC over the last week - still trading sideways. We’ve had attempts to break the lower and the upper band but they’ve been unsuccessful. As such, our approach stays similar to the one we had last week.
We view the current situation as indecision before the next move but no one knows exactly when that will happen, so it’s better to respect the current state of the market until it changes.
As long as we don’t break out of the $26,500 - $29,200 range decisively with daily close below or above, we prefer to trade without too much of a bias and look for both long and short opportunities intraday.
It’s better not to have big expectations and not to chase the price (especially when it approaches the lower or higher band) as it’s easy to get chopped out.
With the situation in the banking system stabilizing recently thanks to Fed’s liquidity injection, market participants start to focus increasingly on incoming data.
This week will be all around job data with March NFP on Friday as the main event.
We will see if the job market stays tight, further supporting Fed rate hikes, or if it shows signs of loosening. Expectations for NFP = 238k. Bear in mind this time the US market will be closed due to holiday when NFP releases, so liquidity on crypto should be thinner.
Other data to keep an eye on this week:
Mon: ISM Manufacturing
Tue: Factory Orders, JOLTs
Wed: ADP, Services PMI, ISM Non-Manufacturing
Thu: Jobless Claims
As always, have a great trading week and Happy Easter!
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