Three BTC scenarios from here

March 15, 2024

I. Mainstream exchange news

• OKX Web3 wallet has been launched on the Atomics market.
• OKX will close USDC deposit and withdrawal services on the TRON chain on March 28th.
• Crypto.com was fined approximately $3.12 million by the Dutch regulators for unregistered operations.
• Two Binance executives are detained in Nigeria until their hearing on March 20th.
• Coinbase will launch Stacks and StarkNet perpetual futures contracts.

II. Mainstream projects and trending events

• EigenLayer will continue to launch its mainnet using a multi-stage method in the coming weeks.
• BNB Chain has launched a Rollup as a Service solution, aiming to expand its Layer 2 ecosystem.
• 7RCC, a small crypto asset management company focused on ESG, is advancing its spot Bitcoin ETF application.
• Musk said that Tesla will support DOGE payments in the future.
• The WIF community plans to put up advertisements in the MSG Sphere venue in Las Vegas and has raised about $700,000 for this purpose.
• The supply of USDe, a stablecoin created by Ethena Labs, has exceeded $1 billion.
• Crypto wallet Zerion is developing a zero-cost Layer 2 network.
• Arbitrum plans to invest $400 million to promote blockchain games.

III. Funding news

• Infrastructure company Clique completed an $8 million Series A funding round, led by Polychain Capital.
• 9 Lives Interactive, web3 shooter game Nyan Heroes's developer team,  completed a $3 million funding, led by Mechanism Capital.
• Polyhedra Network has completed a $20 million funding at a $1 billion valuation.
• Bitcoin DeFi platform OrangeDX completed a $1.5 million funding.
• OKX Ventures announced an investment in the first native Bitcoin DeFi protocol DLC.Link.
• Socialized NFT trading market Pallet Exchange completed a $2.5 million funding.

IV. Regulatory news

• The Hong Kong Monetary Authority has launched the second phase of the "Digital HK Dollar" pilot program.
• The Bank for International Settlements said the behavior of DeFi borrowers is key to measuring tokenization risks.

IV. Popular projects 

Market overview

Bitcoin reached an all-time high of $73,777 on March 14th, but then it declined to a low of $68,555. It quickly recovered to $72,000, but couldn't hold that level and fell below $70,000. This points to three potential scenarios:

(1) If inflows to the BTC spot ETF and major funds continue, keeping the BTC price above $73,000 (targeting above $75,000), it will put pressure on users who previously shorted at highs. This type of trend often leads to a violent pin bar reversal. If more pinbars occur, the more important it is to pay attention to distribution at high levels by heavyweights.

(2) If BTC fluctuates between $70,000 and $73,000, it could be a build-up period for major investors. Major players love to use sell-offs to test the buying power below as well as breakouts to test market trend-following orders and floating chips. It's crucial to keep track of indices, including the BTC futures-spot price difference, the capital rate, and the frequency of BTC transfers to exchanges. 

(3) Should BTC fall below $70,000 without a quick rebound and break below $67,000, we may see a significant adjustment. To reduce the risk of heavy falls, flexible hedging at defined points would be helpful.

FHE (Fully Homomorphic Encryption) track

FHE is a type of encryption that allows calculations to be carried out on encrypted data, obtaining an encrypted result, without the need for decryption. This type of encryption enables the processing and calculations of data without decryption, thus protecting data privacy and security. User privacy protection is one of the most potent narratives in Web3. Here are some noteworthy projects within this track:

Zama: An open-source cryptography company that builds state-of-the-art FHE solutions for blockchain and AI. On March 7th, it announced the completion of a $73 million Series A funding round co-led by Multicoin Capital and Protocol Labs. Zama has a solution for blockchain transactions and a solution for data exchange around AI training and use. Zama's technology is key to building multi-user, privacy-preserving applications.

Privasea: Privasea's goal is to advance the pioneering integration of fully homomorphic encryption machine learning (FHEML) with distributed computing networks. The team is preparing to launch the world's first dApp leveraging FHE technology, ImHuman. ImHuman will use FHE to securely execute "proof of humanity", providing a reliable and tamper-proof method for verifying human users in the digital realm. Privasea has recently secured $5 million in funding with investors including Binance Labs, Gate Labs, and MH Ventures.

Mind Network: Mind Network provides end-to-end encryption for users and allows them full control over their personal data, financial transactions, and user interactions. It amalgamates zero-trust security ethos with zero-knowledge proof and in-house adaptive homomorphic encryption technology. This amalgamation provides strong protection and regulated access within the decentralized network. Recently, Mind Network raised a fund of $2.5 million with participation from Binance Labs and Comma3 Ventures.

Fhenix: Fhenix aims to be the first Layer 2 solution that supports FHE. The goal is to introduce encrypted data calculations to Ethereum. Fhenix's whitepaper was released on November 16, 2023, and it is still in its early stages.

Inconetwork: Inconetwork is a modular blockchain developer focused on confidentiality, committed to bringing confidentiality to decentralized applications. It can be compared with modular blockchain projects like Celestia and Lava, which respectively focus on data availability and access, while Inco focuses on encrypted privacy. In February, it announced $4.5 million in funding led by 1kx, with participation from Circle Ventures, GSR, and Polygon Ventures. 

BOME, a memecoin in the Solona ecosystem, gathers high popularity

BOME is a memecoin on the Solana chain initiated by crypto artist Darkfarms (@Darkfarms1). The project team has used the SOL earned in the pre-sale to increase liquidity. The token saw a single-day surge of 55 times, reaching a market value of $166 million, with on-chain liquidity of $24.85 million. The trading volume in the past 24 hours totaled $230 million, indicating a very high level of activity.

Echelon launched its first AI game Colony

Echelon Prime Foundation has announced the launch of its first AI simulation game built on the Solana network, Colony. Its previous game, Parallel, secured a $50 million investment from Paradigm in 2021. Given its solid background and excellent game production capability, the release of Colony is highly anticipated.

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